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New Orleans Saints vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Picks

Raymond James Stadium

<p>The Saints are in Tampa this week for the second of their two divisional games against the Buccaneers. Last time Tyler Shough played this team, he was taking over for Spencer Rattler. Can the Saints hope for a better performance this week from their young QB?</p>
<p>For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today&#8217;s slate, take a look at our <a href="/nfl/picks/"><em>NFL Picks Page</em></a> or our <em><a href="/nfl/odds/">NFL Odds Page</a>.</em></p>
<p>You can also browse our recommendations for the <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/">best online sportsbooks</a> available in the U.S.</p>
<h2>Game Information</h2>
<figure class="image strchf-type-image regular strchf-size-regular strchf-align-center"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-87562 size-full" src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Olave.jpg" alt="Chris Olave" width="1500" height="844" srcset="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Olave.jpg 1500w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Olave-300x169.jpg 300w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Olave-1024x576.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px" /><figcaption></figcaption></figure>
<h3>Matchup Information</h3>
<ul>
<li>Location: Raymond James Stadium; Tampa, Florida</li>
<li>Date: Sunday, December 7th, 2025</li>
<li>Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST</li>
</ul>
<h3>Quarterback Matchup</h3>
<ul>
<li>New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough (2024 &#8211; N/A)</li>
<li>Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (10-7; 2024 &#8211; 264.7 YPG | 41 TD | 16 INT)</li>
</ul>
<h3>Betting Odds</h3>
<p><a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener sponsored">Odds via BetOnline,</a> an industry leader in the sports betting world.</p>
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<h2>Analysis &amp; Breakdown</h2>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-85462 size-full" src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Godwin-Dunk.jpg" alt="Chris Godwin" width="1500" height="1000" srcset="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Godwin-Dunk.jpg 1500w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Godwin-Dunk-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/10/2025BNNFL-Godwin-Dunk-1024x683.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px" /></p>
<h3>Sinking Ship?</h3>
<p>The Buccaneers have lost three of their last four games, winning their most recent matchup with the Cardinals by just three points. Tampa Bay&#8217;s been beat up this year, missing Bucky Irving, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans for extended periods time. The offense has struggled this year, averaging just 23.3 points per game (17th) and converting just 50% of their redzone trips into touchdowns.</p>
<p>Mike Evans was back at practice this week, however he remains out for this week&#8217;s matchup with New Orleans. The Buccaneers offense has scored 25 or more points just once in the team&#8217;s last six games and that&#8217;s a problem if Tampa Bay hopes to compete this year. The defense ranks 23rd in points allowed (25.1), 30th in opponent redzone efficiency (69.0%) and 29th in opponent pass yards per game.</p>
<p>Despite the injuries, the Buccaneers have had some studs show up with the increased amount of touches to go around. Firstly, rookie Emeka Egbuka has become the team&#8217;s de facto WR1 and he&#8217;s just 210 yards shy of a 1,000 yard rookie season. Mayfield&#8217;s averaging 216.7 pass yards per game with 19 touchdown passes and just five interceptions; all despite missing his top two wideouts and the team&#8217;s top running back in Irving.</p>
<h3>Back to the Future</h3>
<p>The New Orleans Saints this year never had any expectations, no one expected them to win a ton of games, make the playoffs or even compete. Well, they didn&#8217;t. The Saints have won just 2 of their 12 games so far this year, Tyler Shough is under center and the team&#8217;s now looking to the future.</p>
<p>New Orleans is now in assessment mode and everyone on the roster knows it. It&#8217;s time to see what you&#8217;ve got and who&#8217;s going to be on this team moving forward. The Saints rank 22nd in points allowed, 21st in rush yards allowed, 17th in opponent redzone efficiency and 17th in opponent first downs.</p>
<p>Offensively it doesn&#8217;t get any better. The team&#8217;s averaging just 15.2 points per game (30th), converting just 38.6% of their redzone opportunities into touchdowns (32nd) and turning the ball over almost two times per game. It&#8217;s been ugly down in the Bayou this year and it&#8217;s probably going to get worse, before it gets better.</p>
<h2>Sunday&#8217;s Best Bet</h2>
<h3><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/">Juwan Johnson o39.5 Receiving Yards (-120) | BetOnline</a></h3>
<p><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-84052 size-full" src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Juwan-Johnson.jpg" alt="Juwan Johnson" width="1500" height="1000" srcset="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Juwan-Johnson.jpg 1500w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Juwan-Johnson-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Juwan-Johnson-1024x683.jpg 1024w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 1500px) 100vw, 1500px" /></p>
<p>The Buccaneers defense ranks 29th in receiving yards allowed this year and have struggled with prevent yards after the catch this year. The team&#8217;s struggled against receivers out of the slot this year and a ton of that has to do with the play of rookie Jacob Parrish and a linebacking crew that has been terrible in coverage.</p>
<p>Juwan Johnson not only leads the Saint in snaps out of the slot, but he&#8217;s 8th in the entire NFL in snaps from that position. He leads the Saints in yards per route run from the slot and against a blitz heavy Tampa Bay defense, he should see an even bigger increase in target share. The Buccaneers blitz at the 4th highest rate on passing downs and Johnson is targeted at the 2nd highest rate among TEs when blitzed.</p>
<p>Johnson&#8217;s seen 16 targets over his last two games and this week they play the Buccaneers for the second time this year. He caught 5 of his 8 targets back in October, finishing with 53 yards and no touchdowns. That also happened to be the game we saw Tyler Shough come in and take over as the Saints&#8217; new starting QB.</p>
<p>Since then, Johnson&#8217;s recorded 18 receptions, averaging 52.0 receiving yards per game with 2 touchdowns. This week in a divisional game I&#8217;m expecting the two to connect once again.</p>
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