Action Network

CBS Sports

CapperTek

Covers

Dratings

DunkelIndex

FlashPicks

GameSim

OddsShark

OddsTrader

SportGrid

Sports Betting Dime

VSiN

Wunderdog

Moneyline

Total

Point Spread

Away/Home

Wins

Ov / Un

Bills

Falcons

Away/Home Defense

Away/Home Offense

Defense

Offense

Buffalo Bills vs Atlanta Falcons Picks

Mercedes-Benz Stadium

<p><strong>Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills: </strong>The 4-1 Buffalo Bills head to Atlanta to take on the 2-2 Falcons. Buffalo enters this Monday Night Football matchup fresh off its first loss of the season &#8211; a 23-20 defeat at home to division rival New England. On the other side, Atlanta went into its bye week on a high note after a 34-27 win over the Washington Commanders.</p>
<p data-start="443" data-end="672">Can the Bills bounce back against Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons, or will Atlanta keep its momentum rolling? Let’s dive deeper into this prime-time matchup with my Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills predictions and props.</p>
<p><em>For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today’s slate, take a look at our <a href="/nfl/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFL Picks Page</a> or our <a href="/nfl/odds/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFL Odds Page</a>.</em></p>
<p><em>You can also browse our recommendations for the <a href="/best-online-sportsbooks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">best online sportsbooks</a> available in the U.S.</em></p>
<h2>Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills NFL Betting Insights</h2>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<div id="attachment_84497" style="width: 522px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-84497" class=" wp-image-84497" src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Michael-Penix-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="512" height="341" srcset="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Michael-Penix-300x200.jpg 300w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Michael-Penix-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Michael-Penix.jpg 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 512px) 100vw, 512px" /><p id="caption-attachment-84497" class="wp-caption-text">Can Michael Penix Jr. step up and overcome the Bills on Monday Night?</p></div>
<p><strong>Falcons vs Bills Predictions: </strong>Despite their loss on Sunday Night Football in Week 5, the Bills still grade out as one of the most efficient teams in the NFL.</p>
<p data-start="279" data-end="533">Buffalo ranks first in offensive EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Defensively, there are some flaws, but nothing overly alarming. The Bills are allowing 22.6 points per game while ranking 12th in success rate and 17th in defensive EPA per play.</p>
<p data-start="535" data-end="728">The main concern lies within their front seven, where they’ve struggled against the run, allowing 5.6 yards per carry (30th), ranking 27th in rush EPA, and 20th in rush success rate allowed.</p>
<p data-start="730" data-end="1048">That weakness will be tested this week against one of the league’s premier running backs, Bijan Robinson. It’s likely the reason we’ve seen betting support shift toward Atlanta. The Falcons opened as 5.5-point underdogs but now sit around +3.5 at most books. The total has also ticked upward, moving from 48.5 to 50.</p>
<p data-start="105" data-end="453">The move on the total is a bit puzzling. If the betting support for Atlanta stems from their advantage on the ground, you’d think that type of game plan would lead to fewer points. The more the Falcons control time of possession, the more clock they burn and the fewer opportunities Buffalo’s explosive offense will have with the ball.</p>
<p data-start="134" data-end="509">At the same time, I expect Michael Penix Jr. to be relatively limited. On the season, he’s averaging just 19.5 completions on 31.3 attempts for 229.5 passing yards per game. The Bills’ secondary has performed well, holding opponents to only nine yards per completion (fourth-best in the league) while ranking inside the top 10 in both dropback EPA and success rate allowed.</p>
<p data-start="152" data-end="644">Atlanta’s defense has been one of the bright spots of its young season, ranking seventh in EPA per play allowed and holding opponents to just 4.6 yards per play &#8211; tied for fourth-best in the league. Much like their upcoming opponent, the Falcons excel against the pass but struggle against the run. They rank fourth in dropback success rate and sixth in dropback EPA, yet are allowing 4.6 yards per carry (24th) while sitting 27th in rush success rate and 20th in rush EPA per play allowed.</p>
<p data-start="91" data-end="270">I also expect the Bills to lean more on their ground game, which adds to my conviction on the under. The best number currently available is 50.5, and that’s the spot I’m taking.</p>
<p><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Best Bet: Falcons vs Bills Under 50.5 (-118) BetOnline</strong></a></p>
<p><strong>Atlanta vs Buffalo Props: </strong>If you’re looking for players to root for tonight, the data points toward both running backs, Bijan Robinson and James Cook, being in strong positions to produce. However, the market has already priced that in, leaving little value on their props.</p>
<p data-start="113" data-end="516">Instead, I’m banking on a player’s mistake tonight &#8211; Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. As mentioned earlier, the strength of this Buffalo defense lies in its secondary, and I expect it to force Penix into a few costly errors. I also lean toward the Bills covering -3.5, which would likely put Atlanta in catch-up mode and force Penix to throw more often, creating additional chances for turnovers.</p>
<p data-start="766" data-end="923">The Bills have only two interceptions this season, but Penix has thrown three over his last two games. I’m betting on him to throw another tonight at -120.</p>
<p><a href="https://affiliates.bettingnews.com/register/betonline/" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><strong>Best Prop Bet: Michael Penix Jr. Over 0.5 Total Interceptions Thrown (-120)</strong></a></p>
<h2>Still Didn&#8217;t Get Your NFL Fix?</h2>
<p><a href="https://x.com/dannyburke5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Follow me on X @dannyburke5</a> for all my picks, analysis and plenty more. Also be sure to <span class="s2"><a href="https://twitter.com/YourBettingNews" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follow Betting News on ‘X’ </a></span><span class="s5">and <a href="https://www.twitch.tv/bettingnews" target="_blank" rel="noopener"><span class="s2">Twitch</span></a> to catch us on stream! </span><span class="s2">Betting News is also on <a href="https://www.tiktok.com/@yourbettingnews" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TikTok!</a></span><span class="s5"> <span class="s2">Follow us for more picks and news every day and check out our </span></span><a href="/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Free Expert Picks</a> for every major sports league.</p>
  <div id="more-news-shortcode" class="more-news-container">
    <div class="more-news-box">
      <h2 class="more-news-header">More NFL News</h2>

      <div class="more-news-grid">
                              <div class="more-news-card-container">
              <div class="more-news-img-container">
                <img decoding="async"
                  src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-JT.jpg"
                  alt="Colts vs. Jaguars | NFL Week 14 Breakdown &#038; Best Bets: Divisional Battle in the South"
                  loading="lazy"
                  class="more-news-img"
                />
              </div>

              <div class="more-news-text-container">
                <p class="more-news-category">NFL Betting News</p>

                <a class="more-news-a"
                   aria-label="Colts vs. Jaguars | NFL Week 14 Breakdown &#038; Best Bets: Divisional Battle in the South"
                   href="/articles/nfl/colts-vs-jaguars-nfl-week-14-breakdown-best-bets-divisional-battle-in-the-south/">
                  <h5 class="more-news-title">Colts vs. Jaguars | NFL Week 14 Breakdown &#038; Best Bets: Divisional Battle in the South</h5>
                  <p class="more-news-author">
                    Varun Sharma                    <span class="more-news-date">15 minutes ago</span>
                  </p>
                </a>
              </div>
            </div>
                      <div class="more-news-card-container">
              <div class="more-news-img-container">
                <img decoding="async"
                  src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-Lamar-Jackson.jpg"
                  alt="Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview &#038; Predictions (11/7) | Knockin&#8217; for the North"
                  loading="lazy"
                  class="more-news-img"
                />
              </div>

              <div class="more-news-text-container">
                <p class="more-news-category">NFL Betting News</p>

                <a class="more-news-a"
                   aria-label="Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview &#038; Predictions (11/7) | Knockin&#8217; for the North"
                   href="/articles/nfl/baltimore-ravens-vs-pittsburgh-steelers-preview-predictions-11-7/">
                  <h5 class="more-news-title">Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview &#038; Predictions (11/7) | Knockin&#8217; for the North</h5>
                  <p class="more-news-author">
                    Danny Burke                    <span class="more-news-date">Wed Dec 3 2025</span>
                  </p>
                </a>
              </div>
            </div>
                      <div class="more-news-card-container">
              <div class="more-news-img-container">
                <img decoding="async"
                  src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/joe-burrow-cincinnati-bengals-nfl.jpg"
                  alt="Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview &#038; Picks (12/7): Will Burrow get Buried?"
                  loading="lazy"
                  class="more-news-img"
                />
              </div>

              <div class="more-news-text-container">
                <p class="more-news-category">NFL Betting News</p>

                <a class="more-news-a"
                   aria-label="Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview &#038; Picks (12/7): Will Burrow get Buried?"
                   href="/articles/nfl/buffalo-bills-vs-cincinnati-bengals-preview-picks-12-7-will-burrow-get-buried/">
                  <h5 class="more-news-title">Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview &#038; Picks (12/7): Will Burrow get Buried?</h5>
                  <p class="more-news-author">
                    Danny Burke                    <span class="more-news-date">Wed Dec 3 2025</span>
                  </p>
                </a>
              </div>
            </div>
                      <div class="more-news-card-container">
              <div class="more-news-img-container">
                <img decoding="async"
                  src="https://wp.bettingnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/2025BNNFL-dak-prescot.jpg"
                  alt="Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview &#038; Picks (12/4)"
                  loading="lazy"
                  class="more-news-img"
                />
              </div>

              <div class="more-news-text-container">
                <p class="more-news-category">NFL Betting News</p>

                <a class="more-news-a"
                   aria-label="Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview &#038; Picks (12/4)"
                   href="/articles/nfl/detroit-lions-vs-dallas-cowboys-thursday-night-football-preview-picks-12-4/">
                  <h5 class="more-news-title">Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview &#038; Picks (12/4)</h5>
                  <p class="more-news-author">
                    Danny Burke                    <span class="more-news-date">Tue Dec 2 2025</span>
                  </p>
                </a>
              </div>
            </div>
                        </div>
    </div>
  </div>
  
<div class="my-3 card card-body d-flex flex-column flex-lg-row align-items-center" style="background-color: #01337d;">
    <div class="py-3 flex-fill">
        <p class="mb-0 lead text-white text-center text-lg-left font-weight-bold">
            <span style="font-size: 1.15rem;">Get FREE Picks and Props Weekly</span>
            <br><br>
            <span style="font-size: 1rem;">Sign up for</span>
            <br>
            <span style="font-size: 1.15rem;">THE WEEKENDER NEWSLETTER</span>
        </p>
    </div>
    <div>
        <a class="mx-2 btn btn-lg btn-danger stretched-link text-nowrap" role="button" href="/newsletter-subscription/" style="padding: .5rem 2rem;width: 300px;margin: 0;">Get FREE Picks</a>
    </div>
</div>
<h2>Check Out All of Our Betting Resources at Betting News</h2>
<div class="p-rich_text_section">
<div class="su-list mb-5" style="margin-left:0px">
</div>
<ul class="p-rich_text_list p-rich_text_list__bullet" data-stringify-type="unordered-list" data-indent="0" data-border="0">
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/nfl/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/nfl/picks/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">Picks &amp; Odds for the NFL</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/nfl-betting-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/nfl-betting-guide/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">NFL Betting Guide for Beginners</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/ncaaf/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/ncaaf/picks/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">Pick &amp; Odds for NCAAF</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/guides/college-football-betting-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/guides/college-football-betting-guide/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">NCAAF Betting Guide for Beginners</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/mlb/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/mlb/picks/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">Picks &amp; Odds in the MLB</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/guides/mlb-betting-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/guides/mlb-betting-guide/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">MLB Betting Guide for Beginners</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/nba/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/nba/picks/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">Picks &amp; Odds in the NBA</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/guides/nba-betting-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/guides/nba-betting-guide/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">NBA Betting Guide for Beginners</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/nhl/picks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/nhl/picks/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">Picks &amp; Odds in the NHL</a></li>
<li data-stringify-indent="0" data-stringify-border="0"><a class="c-link" href="/sports-betting-guides/nhl-betting-guide/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-stringify-link="/guides/nhl-betting-guide/" data-sk="tooltip_parent">NHL Betting Guide for Beginners</a></li>
</ul>
</div>


Looking for some action in this Sunday showdown? Check out our Carolina Panthers vs Buffalo Bills preview and bets in NFL Week 8.

Atlanta Falcons vs Buffalo Bills Predictions & Props (10/13): Why the Running Backs will Roar

Colts vs. Jaguars | NFL Week 14 Breakdown & Best Bets: Divisional Battle in the South

The top spot in the AFC North is up for grabs. Here's what you should expect in our Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers preview & picks.

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers Preview & Predictions (11/7) | Knockin’ for the North

Get ready for this huge AFC showdown with our Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals preview and picks in NFL Week 14.

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals Preview & Picks (12/7): Will Burrow get Buried?

Get all the info and action you need with our Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football preview and picks.

Detroit Lions vs Dallas Cowboys Thursday Night Football Preview & Picks (12/4)

Giants vs. Patriots | NFL Week 13 Breakdown & Best Bets: Monday Night @ Foxborough