Army Pulls the Upset Over Air Force

Phil P

On Saturday the 3-2 Air Force Falcons head to West Point to take on the 8-2 Army Black Knights in a game to decide the Commander in Chief’s trophy. The army is coming off a 15-0 shutout of rival Navy and looks to run their win streak to three in a row.

Odds for Army vs Air Force

Odds via FanDuel as of Saturday, December 19 (9:00 am ET)

Spread: Army +2.5 (-102) | Air Force -2.5(-120)

Totals: Over 38.5 (-105) | Under 38.5 (-115)

Moneyline: Army +122 | Air Force -150

Both teams have strong defenses and are incredibly run-heavy. Air Force is the 7th ranked scoring defense as they only allow 16 points per game, while Army ranks 4th at 14.7 points per game. Army ranks 1st in the nation in rushing attempts per game at 58.6, and Air Force is 2nd with 57.2 attempts per game. Air Force currently rushes for 336 yards per game (2nd in NCAA), while the Black Knights rank 4th at 280 yards per game.

9 players on Army have over 100 yards rushing on the season, and they are led by Tyheir Tyler who has 99 carries for 440 yards and 2 touchdowns. WR Sandon McCoy ranks in the top 20 of rushing touchdowns with 10, and the team as a whole has 32 rushing touchdowns. They have attempted just 68 passes all season, with 4 of those finding the endzone. Air Force has 18 total touchdowns, with 16 coming on the ground. They are led by RB Brad Roberts who has 378 yards on 53 carries and 5 touchdowns. The Falcons have 8 players that have at least 100 yards rushing on the season, and they have attempted just 47 passes all year.

Both teams rank in the top 10 of total defense as well. Air Force ranks 8th in total yards surrendered, while Army is 3rd. Both rank in the top 20 of rush defense as well, which will make for a low scoring grind it out type game.

Last season when they met it was Air Force that escaped with a 17-13 win over Army. The Army was a little more balanced in 2019 as they threw for 129 yards in the game, while Air Force rushed for 328 yards as the Black Knights struggled to slow down the Falcon rushing attack.

There is no reason to expect anything different in this year’s game. Army has actually played slower than last year and has fully committed to a similar type of offense as Air Force. This will be your prototypical “3 yards and a cloud of dust” game, with both teams averaging 55+ runs per game. It very well could come down to the turnover battle. Whichever team is able to force a fumble and convert will emerge victoriously, but this will be a close game for sure.

I think this comes down to the fact that Air Force hasn’t played a close game since Halloween. They’ve only played 5 games all year and only played once in November. Army on the other hand is riding high after beating rival Navy last week at home and gets to rest up while Air Force travels across the country for the game. Currently, FanDuel lists Air Force (-2.5) as the favorite with the total set at 38.5.

I love Army and the under here in this game. Army is playing really well recently, and they get the consistency of having played last week. Meanwhile, Air Force’s season has been a complete disaster in terms of cancellations, and now they have to travel to West Point after three weeks without a game. I think Army’s defense continues their hot play from last week, and do just enough to squeak out a 14-10 win.

Picks: Army ML and Under 37.5