There’s a rule at most positions in football. If your team drafts someone at the same position in the first or second round, you have been put on alert. The Ravens grabbed JK Dobbins out of Ohio State with the 55th overall pick, and Ingram is on alert. Head Coach John Harbaugh has also confirmed that Dobbins will have an early season role. That role will likely grow as the season progresses, especially if Dobbins produces at the start of the year. Ingram is still in line to do some damage in the Ravens run-friendly offense, but his ADP of 35 was a head scratcher. Raheem Mostert, Devin Singletary and David Montgomery all went later and provide better value.
#9 Jonathan Taylor
You may think it's crazy to have Taylor on this list now that Marlon Mack is out for the year with an achilles tear. Taylor owners are, no doubt, feeling like he's a lock to live up to his ADP of 29. But there are still concerns. No one was thinking of Nyheim Hines on draft day, but even before Mack went down, Hines was getting the red zone work. He scored the only Colts rushing touchdown of the game and averaged 4 yards per carry while Taylor barely racked up over 2 yards per carry. Taylor may now be the "starter" but the Colts clearly do not see him as the bell cow fantasy owners may think he's destined to be.
#8 DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins is one of the best receivers in the game, no argument there. But to think he’ll replicate his normal numbers after playing in the wide open, DeShaun Watson led offense of years past now that he’s in Arizona, I think, is a mistake. Kyler Murray may be a rising star, but he’s still somewhat unproven in the passing game. Hopkins also now has to deal with much better defenses, on average. The 49ers, Seahawks and Rams provide some issues. The Rams just locked up Jalen Ramsey long term. He and Nuk are in line for some great battles.
#7 George Kittle
Don’t get me wrong, I love Kittle. The guy is the definition of the word 'beast'. But the 49ers did some sneaky work this offseason to sign another tight end. They ended up with Jordan Reed, but they first kicked the tires on signing Austin Hooper. Hooper was going to net a high price and the 49ers knew that. So why all the work at a position already held down by such a star? Simple, the 49ers want to lessen his work load. He is physical on every play, especially in the run game. The team would like him healthy and taking fewer hits. The only way to get fewer hits, is fewer targets and catches.
#6 JuJu Smith Schuster
He was a sexy pick last year because Antonio Brown was gone and it was set to be his show in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger got hurt, and Smith-Schuster missed 4 games himself, so you can blame his 552 yard season on that if you want. But the truth is his yards per reception was about the same as the year before. He simply wasn’t targeted as much, which is a function of him not being open as much, which is a function of Brown not being on the opposite side anymore. Some experts in Pittsburgh think Diontae Johnson might be their #1 receiver this year.
#5 Darren Waller
Waller broke out for the Raiders last year with over 1100 yards in a shocking season. For his efforts, he was drafted as the number 5 tight end at an ADP of 67. Waller may have some big games in him again this year, but two things are very true. First, the league knows about him now, so defenses will game plan for him. And second, the Raiders didn’t draft two wide receivers in the first three rounds so they could keep throwing to the tight end.
#4 Courtland Sutton
It’s week 1 and he’s already hurt with a sprained AC joint, but let’s be fair. Most of your drafts happened before that news. Still, it’s not a good omen. He was drafted at #68 ahead of Michael Gallup, Deebo Samuel and Will Fuller, all of whom play with more established quarterbacks in more dynamic offenses. Drew Lock is still very unproven. Add in the fact that Denver used its first round pick on Jerry Jeudy and there are some legitimate concerns about having Sutton as your WR1 or WR2.
#3 Allen Robinson
Robinson is a stud and he found a way to go for 1147 yards last year with Mitch Trubisky as his quarterback. But that Trubisky piece is still the issue. Is that repeatable? And is Trubisky still the quarterback? He’ll begin the season as the starter but his leash is short with Nick Foles waiting in the wings. Robinson’s catch rate of 63.6% last year was the highest of his career. He’s due for a regression. Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, and upstart DJ Chark all presented better value at later draft positions.
#2 Keenan Allen
This is one where people are making the pick without even thinking about the factors. It’s habit over the years to start thinking about Allen in the 3rd or 4th round. His ADP this year was 65, meaning he lasted until round 5 or 6. In multiple drafts I watched people snap him up and then poke the group by saying, “how was he still available?!” Well, here’s how…Tyrod Taylor is the quarterback and head coach Anthony Lynn is in love with the run game. Allen made his name in the league with Philip Rivers throwing almost every ball to him. Taylor has a total of 1 game in his career of over 300 yards passing. Allen is on the way down. I’ll bet right now that Sterling Shepard of the Giants has a better year. He was drafted 54 picks later.
#1 Tom Brady
There, I said it. I know it’s considered disrespectful, but while everyone marvels at the fact that Brady is 43 years old, you could also look at this from a different perspective. In other words…he’s 43 YEARS OLD! How long do you expect this to last? Sure, he has weapons galore and Bruce Arians as his coach, all good signs. But he has zero chemistry with his receivers except for Rob Gronkowski. Last year, Brady barely got to 4000 yards and had 24 touchdown passes. Daniel Jones had the same number of scores in 4 fewer starts. Speaking of Jones, he’s a much better pick 32 slots later than Brady, which was the average ADP split between the two.