U.S. Women’s World Cup: How the Numbers Look to Win the Whole Thing

The U.S. Women’s National Soccer Team are the odds-on favorite to win the whole thing, but should they be?

Soccer is an international phenomenon, and sadly, in the United States, it’s not as big of a phenomenon that it probably should be. Regardless, the U.S. Women’s National Team epitomizes everything we love about America — diversity, empowered women, and oh yeah, a really great bet to cash some sports bets.

That’s because aside from being an inspiration to men and women around the world (as well as the country), the USWNT is also an inspiration to anyone with a wager on them to win the 2019 World Cup.

So are they worth the hefty tag as one of the favored teams, or are we overpaying for what should otherwise be a higher priced team?

Finding Value

Gambling is all about value. Get underdogs when they’re big money and find favorites when they’re underpriced as doing so ensures you can beat the closing markets and hunt for diamonds in the rough.

But is there value in taking Team USA?

At the top of the leaderboard, there is basically a three-team race of favorites — USA, France, and Germany, with the USA and France priced at +350.

As presently composed, the leaderboards certainly make Team USA the betting favorite, not just from oddsmakers, but from the bettors as well.

Especially after their most recent shellacking of Thailand, who funnily enough, happens to be the biggest underdog in the tournament at 1500-1.

What little value Team USA had is most likely gone, as an overreaction to their blowout win, in what is essentially an absolute mismatch in every way, ensures that public market movement on betting lines will not only see Team USA as favorites, but money — both sharp and square — should make betting their moneyline or goalline much more expensive.

As of late, Team USA hasn’t lost a game since May 16, against France, another heavily-favored team in the tournament. Coming into their June 11 matchup with the Thai team, favorites had a recent record of opening up the tournament 6-1.

Team USA opened as a gigantic favorite. -5000 on the money (98-percent implied odds of victory), -4.5 on the goal line, and closed at 5, meaning market movement flowed onto the women of Team USA to demolish Thailand, and they put on what has become a controversially dominant win.

But gamblers couldn’t care less. If you’re hunting for value on Team USA, it’s very likely you can see them in the following two ways: an automatic winning leg on a parlay, guaranteed money if you’re willing to dump a sizable amount of cash on one of their futures bets, or ride one of the most reliable bets in sports at the present time.

Looking Ahead

In the wake of their crushing 13-0 victory, USA will take on Chile, followed by Sweden. In both contests, expect the women in red, white, and blue to be heavily favored. Against Chile, some projections have them as -1000 (90-percent implied win), and against Sweden at around -250 to -300.

The women from Team USA haven’t lost a game in a little while, and as they continue to cruise against inferior competition, there’s no doubt they will continue to crush. It should also be noted that in their entire history in the Women’s World Cup, Team USA has never finished worse than third, meaning, that unless they’re playing one of the other co-favorites — think France or Germany — it’s as stone cold of a lock as it gets.

Final say: Team USA is well-deserving of favorites to win it all, and until they show otherwise, you should continue to bet on them.

Tyler Vaysman

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