Sunday Night sees the Texas A&M Aggies welcome the Arkansas Razorbacks to Kyle Field for a night-time matchup. The Aggies (3-1) go into Sunday on the back of a 28-14 road win against Mississippi State. The Razorbacks are full of confidence following their 33-21 win against Ole Miss.
Odds: Lines, Totals, Spread
Texas A&M are huge favorites, and their implied win probability stands at 84.6%. FanDuel is holding them to win at -550. The Arkansas Razorbacks are held at +390 on the moneyline.
The spread for the game stands at Aggies -12.5, with both sides offered by FanDuel at -110. If you wager $110 for the Aggies to cover the 12.5 points spread and they do it, you will cash in $100. The over/under is set at 54.5 (-118 for the over, -104 for the under).
The Razorbacks' strong start
The Razorbacks (2-2) have surprised naysayers and held their own in the SEC after terrible seasons in the past. They go into Saturday's showdown with Texas A&M fter a 33-21 win against the Ole Miss. They are winners in their last two and have managed to cover the spread in all of their 4 outings.
Their offense is led by new QB Feleipe Franks. He has thrown for 974 yards, 8 TDs and 3 INTs this season. He has also run for 200 yards. Overall, the Razorbacks offense is averaging 250.3 yards passing and 172.3 yards on the ground so far this season.
Central to their performances this season has been their defense. The Razorbacks are 4th in the SEC in points allowed (24 PPG) and their +6 turnover margin ranks best in the nation. They also lead the nation in interceptions with 10.
Eric Gregory leads the defense in clogging up any opening for runners on the defensive line. He has recorded 2 sacks and 6 solo tackles. The defensive back trio of Hudson Clark (3 INT), Greg Brooks Jr ( 2 INT) and Joe Foucha (20 tackles) have also been great in the secondary.
With the Razorbacks’ defense holding their own against top offenses this season, it will be great to see what weapons the Aggies will unleash to have their way. Arkansas need to put all their defensive stops to work and then sneak in a few scores of their own if they hope to pull off the upset.
The Texas A& M Aggies also come into Saturday’s game full of confidence. They are 3-1 on the season and will be looking to build on their 28-14 upset of Mississippi State in their last outing.
The Aggies welcome the Razorbacks with an offense that is on the rise after a slow start. They have topped their last 3 opponents with 52, 41 and 28 points, after being held to only 12 in their season opener. Their QB, Kellen Mond, has thrown for 984 yards and 9 touchdowns, with only 2 interceptions.
Other offensive pieces on the Aggies include Isaiah Spiller (430 rushing yards and 2 TDs), Annias Smith (155 yards on 30 carries), and Chase Lane (222 yards and 2 TDs). On Sunday, they will look to take care of the ball against Arkansas' turnover-forcing secondary.
The Aggies have also been playing solid defense. They rank second in yards allowed (302), rushing yards allowed per game (75.5) and yards allowed per carry (2.75) in the SEC. However, their 279 yards through air should be a worry as they face a much-improved Razorbacks’ offense.
Key Game Trends
The Aggies are 8-2 against the Razorbacks in the last 10.
In their last 6 games as underdogs, the Razorbacks have covered the spread in all (6-0 ATS).
The Razorbacks have covered the spread in their last 4 games after an ATS win.
The Total has gone under 4 times in the Razorbacks’ last 4 games.
Arkansas to cover
In the last 8 encounters between these two teams, the Aggies have won all. The Razorbacks were quite disastrous during that period but are much improved since the season start. They have made massive improvements both on offense and defense and this has translated into results. They have also hung tight in their last three against ranked opponents. Their defense should stall the Aggies' at least enough to come up with a cover.
I like Arkansas to cover the 12.5 points spread (-110 @ FanDuel) and make it a low scoring affair (under 54.5 @ -104 at FanDuel).