San Diego (-6) at Memphis: Sat, Mar 02 4:00 PM EST
I am very excited to see Memphis start out a game with a quarterback not named Christian Hackenberg. We have all seen the Hackenberg show before, and it hasn’t gotten any better. Memphis has appeared to be one of the worst teams in the league with an 0-3 start. I expect Memphis to perform better offensively without Hackenberg in the game, but they are still not a good team. San Diego is the better team in this spot, but I think the 6 point line is very fair. I expect a relatively close game due to Memphis’s defense proving to be pretty solid in their last performance vs. Orlando. The issue for Memphis will likely be their run defense. I expect San Diego and Ja’Quan Gardner to have their way on the ground and eventually the game. I like San Diego (-6).
Orlando (-4) at Salt Lake: Sat, Mar 02 8:00 PM EST
This is one of my favorite plays on the slate because I think it is a recency bias situation. Orlando really struggled to pull away from Memphis last week as a 15-point favorite. I think that this result has changed the line too much. We are only in week 4, so everyone is going to be very reactive to the most recent happenings because we do not have a ton of data on these teams. From a talent level, this Orlando team is likely the best in the league, and I think that -4 is simply too small. I think that Memphis did not really interest them and they will show up ready to stay undefeated in this spot. I expect Salt Lake to keep up, but eventually allow a few big plays and let it slip away from them. I love Orlando (-4).
San Antonio (-7) at Birmingham: Sun, Mar 03 4:00 PM EST
San Antonio started the year off with a nice win but has now lost two straight, and they have looked worse in every game so far. After their first win, they eventually fell 8 points short of Orlando and then they really struggled vs. San Diego last week. In the last game, we saw them struggle drastically on both sides of the ball and especially at the QB position. This league is very new, and some teams are still struggling to really identify their “guy” I think we could see a two QB system from the Commanders, and I really want to avoid that. Birmingham is still riding high off of their 3-0 start and should take care of this game at home. Give me the Iron -7 here.
Atlanta at Arizona (-13.5): Sun, Mar 03 8:00 PM EST
This is the biggest line of the week and rightfully so. Arizona is a top two team in the AAF, along with Orlando in my opinion. The Hotshots lost their starting QB in the last game, which eventually caused them to lose this game. Wolford has been a top 2 QB in the league so far, and I believe this Hotshots team would be undefeated barring this setback. They are now playing the worst team in the league at home, and I expect them to take care of business in this spot. Atlanta is another team with QB issues, and I really have problems invested in anyone with 6 picks and 2 TDs so far this season. I think the loss last week will force the Hotshots to show up and take care of business in this spot, rather than take this Atlanta team easy. I like Arizona -13.5 at home here.